Oh, what a time it is. Pumpkin is back at Dunkin, leaves are just beginning to drop, fantasy football drafts are wrapping up, and football is back TONIGHT with a 2024 AFC Championship game rematch on deck. Your boys from 4QWI are back once again to offer perhaps the greatest takes to help YOU begin your fantasy season with a juicy W over that guy from the office. Along with this article returning weekly, be on the lookout for a "pick-em's" article each week right here on the website, where three games will be offered up for a panel to predict on, with a running score being kept all season long! Finally, stay locked into twitch.tv/4QWIHQ, where we will be live this Friday, 9/6 @ 7 PM EST to recap TNFs super-matchup of Baltimore vs. KC and live-react to the Philly vs. Green Bay matchup. With that, let's not waste any more time, let's get into it.
Like last year, we will go ahead and leave out the effective matchup-proof picks such as Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey.
Returning from last season are yours truly (Noah), Brett, Austin and Jay. We'll be rotating responsibilities for which positions we report on each week, and for this week Brett is leading the charge with the all-important Quarterback position!
Quarterbacks: Brett (@BreTT_Shevlin)
Start: Jared Goff vs. Los Angeles Rams (SNF, 9/8 @ 8:20 PM EST)
Goff revenge game part 2? Rams allowed the 4th most points to opposing QB’s last season and between Ben Johnson and Sean McVay calling plays we should see a high scoring affair. Many have already seen to forget that Jared Goff was QB11 last year in fantasy and are bringing back the same offense as a year ago. The Lions already bolster one of the top offensive lines in football and with Aaron Donald hanging up his cleats this offseason, Goff should have an even easier time in the pocket as opposed to last years meeting.
Start: Tua Tagovailoa vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
We all know Tua is a September merchant. In hot and sunny Miami week 1 against Jacksonville 1:00 game.. don’t be surprised if we see another 70 💣 here for the Dolphins. Nah but all kidding aside, Tua had a passer rating of 121.9 with 1,024 yards, 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in 3 games in September 2023. It’s later in the season when the weather starts getting cold and he has to go play on the road that he struggles. Jacksonville’s pass defense is suspect so don’t be surprised if Tyreek Hill can put on the burners and them and Tua can connect for a few long gains.
Start: Anthony Richardson vs. Houston Texans (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
Here we go baby! The game I’m most looking forward to in week 1 I expect a duel between Stroud and Richardson. Colts are at home and I think Richardson will have to do a lot with his legs and make some big plays with his arm to keep up with CJ Stroud and the Texans' high powered offense. The sample size last year was small but averaging over 25 fantasy ppg and 4 rushing TD’s in 4 games I think he’ll take up where he left off and have a big showing in Week 1.
Sit: Joe Burrow vs. New England Patriots (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
I’m fading my guy Joe Shiesty this week. Joe Burrow has a record of 1-3 in Week 1 games in his career. Add in the loss of Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd and Jamarr Chase’s contract holdout situation? I don’t like the matchup here either with a stingy led Jerod Mayo defense and a lot of guys this offseason who got a bag and looking for something to prove.
Sit: Dak Prescott @ Cleveland Browns (Sunday 9/8 @ 4:25 PM EST)
Dak on the road Week 1 against one of the top defenses in the league? Ya no thanks. The Browns allowed the third fewest fantasy points to QB’s last season and I don’t think the Cowboys really addressed any of their needs in free agency to help lessen the burden on Dak and Lamb.
Sit: Aaron Rodgers @ San Francisco 49ers (MNF, 9/9 @ 8:15 PM EST)
Ya this shouldn’t be a surprise to many, but it’s been 20 months since Aaron Rodgers last ACTUALLY played in a football game. Why the Jets would hold him out the entire pre season is beyond me when he clearly needs the reps, but god is this going to be a disaster for him in week 1. With Nick Bosa lurking on the edge, Rodgers will have to get the ball out fast and hope that his receivers are on the same page. You can find better options than A-Aron this week.
Running Backs: Jay (@jvr1210)
Start: Zamir White vs Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 9/8 @ 4:05 PM EST)
Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce loves Zamir White, and you should too. With Josh Jacobs gone, it is Zamir White’s time to shine (like he did in the Christmas upset against the Chiefs where White rushed for 145 yards on 22 carries). With really no reliable QB the Raiders are primarily going to turn to the running game and White leads that run game.
White also has a favorable match-up against the Chargers, who allowed 18 rushing TDs and 1900 rushing yards in 2023. In a game that is sure to turn into a run-off, I would feel confident in starting White this week.
Start: Raheem Mostert vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
Listen, listen I get it De’Von Achane is all the hype in Miami right now, but Raheem Mostert is coming off of a year where he put up 1000 yards and 18 TDs. Do I expect a repeat performance of that for the 32 year old this year? Not necessarily, but I think this is a fine match-up to slot Mostert into your RB2 or FLEX spot for the week.
Until proven otherwise Mostert will still be the go-to goal-line back for the high-powered Dolphins offense who came out of the gate swinging last year. Miami plays much better in warmer weather and I expect the offense to be cooking, relying heavily on their 2 studs at RB. Mostert should get more than enough touches and goal-line looks to inspire confidence in starting him this week.
Sit: Austin Ekeler vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 9/8 @ 4:25 PM EST)
I’m not feeling too confident in some of the more undefined running back duos going into Week 1. This includes Austin Ekeler, a new addition to the Commanders who will be sharing the backfield with Brian Robinson Jr. I am a fan of Ekeler and did draft him to my fantasy bench in quite a few leagues this year. He will likely remain on my bench and should stay on yours as we wait and see what role Ekeler is going to play and what kind of a split he is going to have with Robinson Jr.
To make matters worse the Commanders are matching up against the Buccaneers who allowed the fifth least rushing yards and were the overall 5th best fantasy defense against the run in 2023. Combine this with the uncertain role Ekeler will be playing and I’d stay far away from him in Week 1.
Sit: Zack Moss vs. New England Patriots (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
Similar story to Austin Ekeler, Zack Moss who had a bit of a breakout for the Colts in 2023 while Jonathon Taylor was injured has been brought into Cincinnati to help replace the Joe Mixon sized hole in their running game. Unfortunately, Zack Moss is also in an undefined running back tandem with Chase Brown. Brown and Moss will likely be competing heavily with one another for carries in the first few weeks as the team decides who they want to be the lead back moving forward.
Furthermore, the Bengals are likely going to be passing the ball more often than they will be running the ball. With Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, you can’t blame them for this. Their match-up (at least rushing-wise) may not be as much of a slam dunk as it seems. The Patriots despite not being a great team are pretty stead-fast against the run, with new defensive minded head coach Jerod Mayo, they will likely continue to be steadfast against the run in 2024. I’d avoid Moss until further notice.
Wide Receivers: Austin (@spechty49)
Start: Malik Nabers vs. Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
It’s obvious that Nabers is in line to get some serious targets this season. Nabers was in the mix for best WR in college football last season and is the clear number 1 receiver and best passing threat on this Giants team. Daniel Jones is throwing the ball still but the Vikings defense does not pose much of a threat.
Start: Christian Kirk @ Miami Dolphins (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
Kirk was lowkey a dog before his injury last season. With some new faces such as Gabe Davis and potential sleeper Brian Thomas Jr another stud from Wide Receiver university I would expect some pressure to be taken off Kirk allowing him some nice looks in what I expect to be a potential high scoring shootout.
Start: Marvin Harrison Jr @ Buffalo Bills (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
Duh. I’m not just saying this because he is on my team. but this guy is legit. A star College WR with hall of fame blood in his veins. Dude has 20 feet of shit at WR behind him. A decent run game, a good tight end, and a good-when-healthy QB should be enough to allow MHJ do do his thing. Murray has proven he can handle a top WR like Hollywood and Dhop and I think this kid will be better. Has every week start star potential.
Sit: Tank Dell @ Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
I’ve flipped and flopped over which WR is on the out here. I think 3 WR might work in the Bears' case… one young star, one older veteran, and one rookie but for the Texans and everything I’ve been reading it seems Tank is the odd man out. Nico Collins exploded onto the scene last season and Diggs is a proven arguably top 5 WR when he’s on his best behavior. So I’m not saying Tank is on the season long shit list but I’m willing to risk sitting him Week 1 and maybe beyond until I see what his role is.
Sit Jerry: Jeudy and Amari Cooper vs. Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 9/8 @ 4:25 PM EST)
Browns have a good wide receiver room which will be a part of many STARTS throughout the year. However against a good Cowboys secondary and a big question mark in Watson I think then may be worth a fade in week one.
Tight Ends: Austin (@specht49)
Start Kyle Pitts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
Bro trust me. Cousins will lead Pitts to TE glory. I found a bonkers stat. 59% of Pitts passes two years ago were statistically UNCATCHABLE?!? Bonkers. Then you slide in garbage can QBs who ranked bottom 2 in catchable passes last season … KIRKO was the 2nd best QB in catchable passes. Dawg. Revamped offense new play caller new QB better days ahead shoutout NFL.com for the stats.
Start: Tyler Conklin @ San Francisco 49ers (MNF, 9/9 @ 8:15 PM EST)
You guys know who is who in the TE universe. So I’m trying to get a little deeper. Tyler Conklin has been a permanent resident of Waivers forever. If Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy I can see Tyler being a potential sneaky mid tier/low high tier type TE.
Sit: David Njoku vs. Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 9/8 @ 4:25 PM EST)
This again much like his teammates is a “wait and see take” if it was Joe Flacco start. I need to see what’s what before I trust the Browns pass catchers and it’s not even their fault. Last seasons Cowboys secondary allowed little TE production and I don’t see a good reason to start him right now.
Sit: My Beloved Cole Kmet vs. Tennessee Titans (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
Kmet went from arguably target number 2 and big game potential to the neglected 5th child and maybe not even best TE on the team. Gerald Everett split time in the preseason with Kmet so there will be better options this week and honestly all season. I think Kmet will find himself last in line on the passing attack.
D/STs: Noah (@Endydoe)
Start: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders (Sunday 9/8 @ 4:25 PM EST)
Coming off a solid, and even unexpected success of a season for the Buccaneers, they find themselves at home Week 1 against a new-look Washington Commanders, with rookie QB Jayden Daniels in place. Along with bringing in the fallen-from-grace Austin Ekeler to serve in a likely tandem with Brian Robinson, it is likely the Commanders are going to be figuring out their identity throughout the season and won't have all the answers, especially against a Bucs team that allowed the fifth least rushing yards to opponents last season. Should Daniels need to air it out, there's a good chance we see some rookie mistakes in an away matchup. Tampa Bay's D/ST is certainly not a sought-after commodity (owned in only 4.6% of all ESPN leagues) but the matchup makes sense, making the Bucs worth a play in Week 1. Start the Bucs and bank on a couple turnovers.
Start: Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST) It will continue to be no secret that 4QWI is run by a bunch of New England natives, and it'll never get any easier to continue to dog on them, but let's be honest. The Bengals are coming into a season with high expectations, at home, against a New England team with a first-time Head Coach in his first-game with a journeymen QB and a roster of WR4's. The Bengals D was not great last season, but has added some new pieces such as Geno Stone, who joins Cincy after logging 7 interceptions last season with the Ravens. As I usually do when I provide picks for these articles, the proof is really in the matchup. This probably won't be pretty. With a high floor in their season opener, the Bengals are a fine option in 12-team leagues
Start: New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST) Are we starting to see a trend? Bad teams on the road are going to likely give up some good points to opponent D/STs this week. Unlike the Bengals, the Saints have a stout defense, and enter the 2024 season after allowing the 9th least passing yards and tying for second-most interceptions by a team in 2023. They face off against the Carolina Panthers who are giving Bryce Young a second chance, only due to the fact that they took him first overall last year. The Saints start their season in a divisional matchup against the one team they don't need to worry about; go ahead and start them and rack up some points against this garbage offense who finished dead last in net yards last season, and who tied with who else but the New England Patriots for least points scored. Who dat.
Sit: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST) One of the more interesting matchups of the week has two teams with new veteran QBs taking over starting jobs as the Steelers visit the Falcons. The Steelers were close to a top 10 defense last season, but the matchup isn't necessarily favorable as the Falcons come in with a respected QB in Kirk Cousins taking up an offense that without him finished in the middle of the pack in terms of total offense with an inferior QB in place. There are indeed question marks regarding Cousins' health as his 2023 ended prematurely with an achilles injury, but he in a favorable situation in Atlanta with several weapons at his disposal including Bijan Robinson and Drake London, both of whom are sure to take additional leaps in their sophomore and third seasons respectively. The Steelers have a floor to stand on this week in fantasy, but the ceiling is higher with other options.
Sit: Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST) A big offseason for the Bears saw them loading up on additional contracts such as Keenan Allen and D'Andre Swift and resigning DJ Moore to provide generational rookie Caleb Williams with all the tools needed to succeed this season. At home, the Bears open their season against the Titans, a team that finished somewhere in the middle for rushing and passing yards allowed last season, and also had the least interceptions. This is a statement game for the Bears, and while it can be easy to bet against the rookie, the formula is there and we will likely see the Bears trying to make the most of the debut of their hopeful franchise QB for the next decade plus.
Kickers: Noah (@Endydoe)
Start: Brandon Aubrey (Dallas Cowboys) @ Cleveland Browns (Sunday 9/8 @ 4:25 PM EST)
Brandon Aubrey comes in as the reigning score leader in the NFL as his Cowboys take on Cleveland in a very intriguing matchup. Tied for the third-most field goal attempts in the NFL in 2023 (38), Aubrey paired that with a cool 94.7% success rate on those attempts, also good for third in the NFL. In a Cowboys offense that can get him downfield against a Cleveland team that may hold the Cowboys within the redzone on more than one occasion, I see Aubrey getting plenty of looks in this matchup.
Start: Cairo Santos (Chicago Bears) vs. Tennessee Titans (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
Piggybacking off of an earlier entry, Santos could be a sneaky fantasy mainstay this season within a Chicago Bears team that has the pieces for a good offense. We can't expect pure excellence out of Caleb Williams off the bat, and if he isn't able to convert tuddies, the Bears wield Santos who is no slouch. He comes into the 2024 season after having finished 2023 as the 9th most accurate kicker in the league (92.1%), and tied for third-most attempts (38), a position he shared in part along with the aforementioned Aubrey. Santos will be a solid play this week to be sure.
Sit: Ka'imi Fairbairn (Houston Texans) @ Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 9/8 @ 1:00 PM EST)
I come in this week recommending you don't start Fairbairn with the main reason being I see this being a high scoring affair between the Colts and Texans in an exciting divisional matchup. The Colts, for their part, allowed the 9th most yards per game (349.8) and the 5th most points per game (24.4) in 2023 and they face a Texans team that just loaded up their already impressive offensive arsenal with Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. Expect the Texans to reach the end zone with more ease, especially against the Colts, giving Fairbairn more points off of extra points than anything.
That's all for this week gang. We'll see you soon with even more juicy football content!
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